In the last article, we have talked about the identifying risk and recognizing risk. Now, in the current article, we discuss regarding controlling the risk. Generally, in the market, we put much emphasis on the higher absolute return instead of superior risk-adjusted return. But the great investors are those who focus on the risk and generate moderate returns with low risk or high return with moderate risk.

Generating higher returns with the higher risk for a long time is rare in the market. The risk of losing money arises when our investment meets adverse situations and Loss does not occur till the negative events occur. We should always focus on controlling the risk because we do not know that when the negative situation arises and we met losses.

When we bought the home, we check that the home is constructed in a way which can be protected by earthquake or not. The similarly, we should focus on our investment. We should focus on the situations where the occurrence of such negative situations can destroy our wealth. And work as an earthquake in our financial position.

It can be possible that an earthquake will never happen in life long, but we bought the home which can be protected with an earthquake. Similarly, it may be possible that adverse situations will not arise during our investment time, but we should focus on raising of adverse situations and how we can able to protect our wealth from such situations.

The risk is not always easily visible. If our surrounding environment is positive, then we start thinking that negative situation may not arise due to the influence of that positive environment. But in fact, the risk is always present in the good environment also. And anytime good environment can easily turn out to the bad environment. Such transformation does not come to us with the prior intimation. We must have to be ready properly with such considerations before making investment decisions. Even controlling risk is becoming essential into the good environment because nobody is talking about risk and in a bad environment, risk takes care of itself because everyone fearing of risk.

Generating superior return compared to benchmark with the similar risk nature is a good performance. But, a good value addition is while we generate a return which is like the benchmark return with the lowest risk and with proper controlling of the risk. Such scenario is even better.

When the environment is positive, everyone rides the wave and we cannot able to say which one is better. (Good article – Doubled your Money in Last 3 Years ? Skill or Luck ?)


So that we should always focus on the controlling risk, whether it will rise or not. Because we cannot able to really predict the occurrence of the risk.


Careful investors always know that they cannot able to know the future so that they try to focus on controlling risk and try to factor the risk of loss of capital while they make any investment decisions.


We start avoiding focusing on risk as the environment is going positive. Initially, we might put weight on risk, but many times that risk might not get triggered. So that we start avoiding it and started believing that there is a no risk into the environment. Such risk will not occur and we saved from the negative situation.

As we have seen in Russian Roulette with 100 chances, we may save for 99 times, but the 1 time can kill us. Or if we are lucky we can be saved all the 100 times. It doesn’t mean that there is no risk or risk may not arise in the future.



We constructed belief in our mind from our past experiences. If we have seen the positive environment, then we have made belief that negative situations never come. We should always keep in mind that occasionally extreme situations can arise and that can be out of our all belief.

In the year 2007, also welcome structured products, huge capital inflows, etc.



We should not run from the risk but should manage risk intelligently. We should take the risk, but at the appropriate time and most importantly at an appropriate price.


When we walk on a road with keeping our eyes closed and we do not meet an accident, then it’s not our talent, it’s a pure luck which plays out. We are a real blind if we consider such situation as our own skill. And such risky situations do not stay rewarding for a long period and we must walk on the road with keeping our eyes open.



We have seen the process for the identification of risk in the previous article of the same series. In the current issue, I am going to discuss regarding recognizing of the risk.

For the successful investing, we must have to focus on the generating return with having a proper control on risk. And for the controlling risk, we require to identifying and recognizing the risk.

The risk is always being at a much higher where we are too much optimistic towards the particular scenario and also paying a much higher price for the buying particular asset. But we should focus on When odds turn out against us than how we can able to protect ourselves or get out of such scenario with least damage. So, for the protecting ourselves, we need to avoid paying too high prices and also keep ourselves away from the extreme level of optimistic sentiment.

Click for Video — Auction scene

We always forget the real worth of the assets in the bull phase and start chasing that asset class. Such behavior is dangerous for the health of our wealth. This increases the risk while we are purchasing assets more than its worth.

The market always works in a pendulum and people generally forget the nature of the pendulum. The pendulum always moves towards the both extreme directions.


Whenever pendulum moves towards the bullish extreme, many of us forget that such situations will not stay forever. Many of us forget about the risk which involves during the bull phase. And start taking higher risk for generating higher returns; which invites further huge amount of risk. At bullish sentiment, people generally buy assets at the highest valuations multiple and that invites the risk to the particular asset class. This scenario has a very high chance of getting damage to our wealth compared to generating a higher return.

Reverse to such scenario, whenever the pendulum moves towards extreme bearish phase, then generally people start recognizing the risk and start avoiding to invest in the particular asset class; which take out the risk from that particular asset class. Such scenario is the appropriate time for capturing the opportunities because in such scenario we have very less chance to lose.


Many a time due to bullish sentiment, we think that the risk is very low, we start taking more risky situations, also start taking leverage and from that time risk starts taking its shape. Our behavior towards particular asset class invites risk.


Risk will be only low if we as an investor behave in a careful and wise manner. We cannot eliminate the risk, but we can able to control its effect. We have to analyze risk in every scenario. Risk always has its presence, though we are having a bullish sentiment. And according to me, the risk is much higher while having a bullish sentiment.


At the extreme bullish sentiment, we forget to worry, fear of loss and instead of it, we think about to miss the opportunity. We think that all others will earn the money and we remain without earning money. We start taking much leverage and believe that we are living in a low-risk world.

Click for Video — Bull phase in auction

We have seen in the above video that the person who doesn’t want to purchase a horse for the Rs.5 lakh; same person bought the horse for the Rs.5 lakh due to the influence of the increasing value of the bid for the horse. The person doesn’t want to lose the horse and cannot see others to take that horse.



Read for more detail: The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks


For making any investment decisions, we have to be dealt with the future, which is uncertain in nature. So, that when there is an uncertainty, then there is an involvement of risk and we cannot escape from the risk. We must have to focus on asserting risk while making any investment decisions.

When we focus on the return of the particular instrument, then we have concentrated our focus on half of the movie and rest half will get completed with asserting risk in that particular investment.

Risk 01

Traditionally, we all have learned, that in making a higher return, we need to take an incremental risk.

But we think logically about the same that if we get a higher return for the taking of incremental risk than there should not be a risk. We get rewarded by the returns for taking a higher risk.

Risk 02

Traditional risk/return graph has communicated the positive relationship between risk and return but ignored uncertainty involved for making such returns. Additionally, traditional risk/return graph has shown a risk as similar to volatility, but not focused on the danger which is involved in the investment.

Many a times volatility cannot be an as riskier as compared to other dangerous events for our investment.

Risk 03

So, that risk is not a volatility in the price of stocks, but the real risk is the permanent loss of our capital. And we must have to be worried about the permanent loss of capital rather than volatility. We must have to focus on the understanding of the risk which could have the probability of erosion of our capital.

Many a times risk is not only limited to, permanent loss of capital or to volatility, some kind of risk are objective and personal in nature; such as-

1) Falling short of one’s goal

Many investors have a different need, goals and not meeting those by investment results can be the risk for the particular person.

If someone just requires meeting the routine expenses, then getting a fixed return from fixed return instrument might not be at risk for the person, but if someone who wanted to build capital for investment then such a lower return can be a risk for that particular person.

2) Underperformance

Such kind of risk is related to the investment manager. If the investment manager cannot able to generate higher returns compare to index than the investment manager might lose his clients.

Risk 04

3) Career risk

This is an extreme form of underperformance risk. Continuous underperformance can have resulted in the risk to the career.

4) Unconventionality

This risk is connected with a being different while making an investment idea. If unconventional idea got wrong, then there might be a risk to the career.

We buy metals, sugar stocks, etc. (at the worst time of the cycle). Instead of buying pharma, IT, Banking which is a darling of the industry. And if our stock picks up doesn’t work, then we have to face trouble and extreme risk of loss of career.

5) Illiquidity

This risk arises when investors need a money for some urgency and unable to break his investment.

Let me take an example of the cricket match for understanding a risk.

The main risk in the cricket match is to losing the match, series, etc. as similar to losing our capital in investment. If all the players play a poor game, then definitely team will lose the match and similar to an investment; if all our investment resulted in poor returns or more risk oriented than we might lose our capital or lose real value of capital.

As we have seen in Indian cricket history that Mr. Sachin Tendulkar, Mr. Rahul Dravid has played very well and created the record, they don’t always come to the ground for making a century or creating a huge score but always played well for protecting their wickets. Their focus on protecting their wicket helps them to play well for the longer period of time. And on against to them, many other players came to Indian cricket history and gone also; cannot able to stay for a longer period of time. They just have focused on making a score and sometimes due to the luck they can able to make good score but not always.

If players do not able to play well on a continues basis, then they will have lost the opportunity of staying with the cricket team (Career Risk). Also, we have seen that Mr. Mahendra Singh Dhoni has taken a many unconventional decision for the team during the match. Many of his decisions got success and many not. When he filled with his unconventional decisions, he has to face the anger of the people. This is as similar to our unconventional investment decisions and has to face anger from our clients if we filed into the unconventional decisions.

It is not necessary that we only can be incurred a loss by buying weak fundamental stocks. If we bought the comparatively lower fundamental company at a very lower price than that investment turns out to be a successful investment.

Sugar IT

We can see that if we have bought the comparatively lower fundamentally good stock at a cheap price than this stock has generated a higher return compared to the good fundamental stocks in last 5 years.

Also, not good macro environmental promises of safety. Because too positive news brings up prices at too high and any small adverse development can be enough for damages to our wealth.

People generally tend to associate with the things that are doing well. And that investment might be able to fulfill expectations for a while and thereafter small negative event can damage much higher. Such scenario having an involvement of higher risk.

So, that value investors believe in achieving higher returns from lower risk. We have to be ready with underperformance risk while we are buying bargains and market is in a heated bull phase. We need to accept it rather than incurring losses.

Risk 05

Investment is dealing with the future and the future is highly uncertain. And it’s impossible to know anything about the future.

Risk means more things can happen compared to what happened in the past. Understanding of risk requires a second level thinking and it’s not an easy task. The risk of losing money is observed by one that’s similar is not observed by another one.

Read for more detail: The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks


As we have discussed regarding value in the previous article of a Bibliophile. Now, I am going to talk about the 4th Chapter of The Most Important Thing – The relationship between price and value.

01 P&V

There is not an availability of any asset class which having a birthright for providing a higher return. If we bought a particular asset class at an appropriate price, then that provides us a higher return to safety.

02 P&V

An example of one the biggest wealth creator company of the Indian stock market—

INFY Chart

If someone has bought this company during the March-2000, At the high price of around Rs.431 then after the 16 years of the period, he gets returned at 7% CAGR. And if enter to the similar company at the low price of around Rs.275 during the March-2000 then after the 16 years of the period, he gets a returned of 10% CAGR (*Considering all time high price for calculating returns). Though revenue grew at 30% CAGR, Operating profit grown at 27% CAGR and Net profit also grown at 27% CAGR during the same period with supported by the good management team.

If we buy such a good thing at a too high price, then we have to wait for the very long time for getting fair returns rather getting superior returns. But if we have bought junk asset class or good asset class at an appropriate value, then we can able to create a superior return.

We should focus on correctly buying an asset at a cheaper price so that we need not keep focusing on the selling decisions. Because our buying decision provides us a huge safety. Whenever we buy any stock at a cheaper price and all our calculations of intrinsic value are correct, then over a period of time, the stock price should reach its intrinsic value.

So, that One of a good idea of making an investment is to buy whenever the pessimistic situations around us which provide us a good return with proper safety. But such scenario not always comes. This means we construct our portfolio at the time of crisis, but every time, we cannot stay only dependent on the crisis for making our buying decisions.

03 P&V

Thus, most important are to understand the relationship of price & value. By knowing the relationship between price and value, we can able to take an advantage of mispriced valued stock and consistently create a wealth for the longer period of time. We also need to understand the Psychology of investors along with the understanding the price – value relationship because the psychology of investors can drive stock prices in the short run. But at a longer period, the price should reach its intrinsic value. So, that it is an essential for us to buy an asset at a discount from its intrinsic value.

IT Bubble

Infra & Logistics

04 P&V

Investors Psychology is also one of the important factors along with the Fundamental value of the security which can drive stock prices to an extreme side and that provide us an opportunity for our entry/exit. We should avoid falling into the trap with short term price fluctuation due to the psychology of investors but should take an advantage from it.

05 P&V

06 P&V


People never focus on the price at clever people make an investment. But they start herding towards the news of such deals. So, that more and more people start buying the same stock and due to the flow of buying, the stock starts rising and again more investor start buying into it and stock start rising again. Thus, psychology drives a price much more rather than its fundamental in the shorter period of time. Everyone starts creating stories after the clever people make an investment, those stories drive the price of the asset class at extreme direction.

As per the Howard Marks, there are few ways by which we can earn a profit on the investment:

  • Benefiting from rising in the asset’s intrinsic value.

In this method, an investor has to predict accurately to the improvement in the intrinsic value of the assets in the future. But this task is not as easy as it seems. We even don’t know our future and we are going to predict the future of the intrinsic value which is very uncertain in nature.

  • Applying leverage

Leverage means investing using borrowed money. Leverage always works as a double edged sword. It can either make you or will break you. It magnifies both gains as well as losses. So, leverage might provide us a higher return, but it can also create a threat to our own capital. Selling for more than your asset’s worth

  • Selling for more than your asset’s worth

Here, we need to hope for the buyer who is ready to buy an asset at a higher price. If we are holding an asset which is overpriced or fairly priced than we need a greater fool to buy an asset from us at a higher price.

  • Buying something for less than its value

In this option, we are buying an asset at the discount, from its intrinsic value. It’s just required for the proper functioning of the market and that brings an asset to its intrinsic value. This can be one of the most useful ways to make a consistent return with a safety of our capital.

Sultan Mirza

Click for Video — Sultan Mirza

As we have seen in the video that Ajay Devgan has bought Guava at a very high price compared to the real value of the Guava. We have many a time experienced such kind of the irrationality among the investors who focus on story prevailing at market space rather than focus on the real value of the particular stock. We will not always able to meet Sultan Mirza (Ajay Devgan) / Irrational investor who buy an asset from us at a very irrational price. So, that we always need to focus on the buying an asset at a discount from the real value for getting a consistent return to safety.

Read for more detail: The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks


In the 3rd chapter of the book “The Most Important Thing”, Mr. Howard Marks has discussed regarding different ways to identify the value of any business.


We always make an investment at a lower price with the intention to sell it at a higher price. Means that we buy something at less price than we can able to sell.

But what is high, price and what is a low price? How to identify it? That is the main confusion for all of us.

For taking it at a simplify manner, we can say that we buy at below the intrinsic value of any assets for selling that asset at a higher price.

“Intrinsic value is the value (i.e. what the company is really worth). Different investors use different techniques to calculate intrinsic value.” – InvestorWords

Now the question is how to identify an intrinsic value? As we all know that there is a major 2 discipline to identify an intrinsic value of the company’s securities.

1) Fundamental Analysis and,

2) Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis basically studies past behavior of price and from that past behavior, person predicts future price behavior.

I am not going to discuss this study in details because it’s not suitable to me and I am not able to make decisions based on past price behavior.

Move forward to the Fundamental Analysis, which is suitable for me and am comfortable with it. But again, a Fundamental Analysis also having two approaches to making a decision for an intrinsic value.

1) Value Investing and

2) Growth Investing

We need to Valuing a company by depending on a finance resource, management, business, plants & machines, factories, intellectual properties, human resources, brand name, etc.; which all having a potential to grow earnings of the particular company. And that is what we study into the fundamental analysis.

Then what is the main difference between value investing and growth investing?

Now, let me talk about the concept of valuing the company through value investing approach.

Value Investing generally focuses on tangible assets, current earnings, cash flow for valuing a company. This concept gives less weight to the intangible assets such as human resources with talents, future growth prospects, etc.

Value Investing focus on buying a company at a cheaper value based on its financial metrics such as current earnings, cash flow, dividends, tangible assets and enterprise value. Value Investors qualify the current value of the company and buy it when the current value is much higher than trading price.

Value Investing is also known as “net-net investing” approach, where investors try to identify the company which is available at below its current asset value.

Whereas growth investing focuses on to identifying companies which having a very bright future growth prospects. Here, no focus on the current value of the company and also given more weight to the intangible assets.

Difference GI VI

The Happy

Still having a confusion for selecting an approach for determining a value of the company.

If we have bought a security of a company which is available at cheaper than the current price, but at the operational level, the company is not able to do well enough, then that value cannot able to remain sustainable for the longer period of time. The value will get decompound rather than be getting compounded in the future. And that increases our probability of incurring the loss.

I read one wonderful article about the value trap company.


The company looks very cheap on the basis of the financial metrics, but if someone who do not have paid attention to the business of the company then—

MTNL Chart

An investor has lost his capital also. So, that in value investing also, we cannot escape from the future. (For detail article, Kindly visit –

For the growth investing


But is it such easier to perform?

Let me take an example of one the biggest wealth creator company of the Indian stock market—

INFY Chart

If someone has bought this company during the March-2000, At the high price of around Rs.431 then after the 16 years of the period, he gets returned at 7% CAGR. And if enter to the similar company at the low price of around Rs.275 during the March-2000 then after the 16 years of the period, he gets a returned of 10% CAGR (*Considering all time high price for calculating returns). Though revenue grown at 30% CAGR, Operating profit grown at 27% CAGR and Net profit also grown at 27% CAGR during the same period with supported by good management team. During March-2000, the company was traded at 64x P/E at low price of Rs.275 and this multiple are common now-a-days.

There is a very thin line difference between Growth investing and value investing.

Value investing is more consistent in nature, but it’s not easy to find it out. It is not an easy task to valuing a company through value investing approach. I also learn this valuable learning after made the such mistake. If we don’t able to make our estimate appropriately than we might overpay or underpay to that particular security. If we overpay for some security, then we have to take support of good luck for getting some greater fool who buys securities from us at a higher price.

Also, the most important thing is not to just valuing security appropriately, but also, we need to hold it. Stock will not start moving up after we make our purchase. Stock does not know that we are holding it.

After our purchasing, many a time price will start to fall further. But we should hold to it firmly. If something good at price X then it will be more good at price X-1.


This law of demand is not really put by investors into practice in the stock market. We tend to buy more stock when the price starts moving up. But if we have done all our work properly, then decline in the price of security should not make us uncomfortable and we should also need to add more at a lower level.


Read for more detail: The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks


Above article is just my perception, and perception can be wrong. For me, my perception can be right but for others, it might be wrong.



In the last article, we have seen that what is 2nd level thinking and how we can able to take benefits from 2nd level thinking. In this article, I am going to discuss my learning from the 2nd chapter of the book “The Most Important Thing”. This chapter talks about efficient market theory and how we can use it for our own benefits to earn an above average return.

So first, we need to know what is an efficient market hypothesis?


Source: The Most Important Thing by Howards Mark

According to the efficient market theory, it is not possible to earn a consistently above average return due to the availability of information with each and every market participants at the same time. And also, there are many investors who tracking real-time information and make a decision based on this information. Due to this hard work by an investor, the price of securities reaches at fair value easily.


We can see in the above chart that as the quarterly result get announced, many of the investors have made an effort to analyze available information and stock price reaches to the fair value.

So, that We cannot ignore that theory is not relevant to the practice.


Source: The Most Important Thing by Howards Mark

As per the above criteria, Bank Fixed Deposit is one of the suitable examples of the efficient asset class among all other asset classes. Bank FD can pass through all above criteria and due to its efficient nature, we cannot able to get an above average return from Bank FD, even cannot able to earn higher than the inflation.

We must have to agree with the parameters that investors work hard for analyzing each and every available information for reaching towards some conclusions. And additionally, everyone having the same access towards all information. So, that we cannot able to make an above average return consistently over a longer period of time.

So, those companies which are tracked by more and more analysts, FIIs, and retail investors then chances of getting an above average return will reduce. Thus, we have to focus on the companies which is different and where we can able to get the edge for creating an above average return.

If we take an example of the huge wealth creator company with every 5 years’ interval, then


So, this stock has given a huge return when not much known to the investors (i.e. inefficient) and as the stock becomes known to all (i.e. efficient), speed & rate of return start falling.

As we agreed with the parameter that every investor works hard, but what about the emotional interference for making a decision? Is it really easy to control our emotions while making any decisions?

Also, the psychology of all investors influences the decisions taken by them, which creates misprice opportunity for us. All investors react differently to the same information due to their emotional influences.

If any news regarding company comes then everyone can get it at a similar time (I am considering everyone accessing information at the same time) but the interpretation of that news is different with different participants.


Everyone gets the news of the fire at the plant of the company at the same time. But some people analyzed that this will incur an additional loss to the company & starts feeling far from this news and started selling out their positions. And some will use second level thinking to buy that same stock at an available discount due to temporary reasons.

So, that’s how to use information & capturing mispricing opportunities is dependent on skills and emotional ability of individual investors and that helps them to make an above average return.

Also, we should not ignore theory because theory helps us to limit our focus on mispriced opportunities rather focusing on all the available opportunities. We have to open for analyzing all the unknown opportunities with using of 2nd level thinking. Then and only then we can able to catch up opportunities to getting above average returns.

Many a time, we get an opportunity which is avoided by others or others are not willing to grab those opportunities. We have to identify mispriced opportunities and have to take benefits from such inefficiency.

Every most efficient opportunity is mispriced opportunities at once upon a time. So, that we have to limit our focus on identifying misprice opportunity. As I quoted in the above example of fire at the plant of the company. As that company is widely tracking by many investors, FIIs, DIIs etc., but capturing opportunity when it becomes a mispriced opportunity that is the importance of skill (Obviously with important of LUCK).

Also, we should try to capture the opportunity which is not well known and not tracked by many of the investors. By this, we can able to limit our focus and can able to generate an above average return.



Read for more detail: The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks


Above article is just my perception, and perception can be wrong. For me, my perception can be right but for others, it might be wrong.

Bibliophile: The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks “Second- Level Thinking”

One of the books which has influenced me and my investment journey is “The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks”. This book teaches us the most important thing which we need to develop for becoming a wise investor. In this article, I include my learning from the 1st chapter of the book – “Second Level Thinking”.

This chapter talks about in-depth thinking for each and every opportunity and even before making any decisions. As the name suggests, we need to enhance our thinking level for making a decision. I found this concept similarly useful in my life also as it’s useful to the investment world. So, I am starting my learning from the 1st chapter of the book.

If we want to get a return as similar as market returns, then we do not need to enhance our level of thinking. We can just make an investment into the index fund, ETF etc., which are listed on exchanges. But what if we want to earn an above average return, we need to make a different decision and need to think differently.

We should need to come out of the crowd and take our stand. We might get right or might get wrong, but should not stop our thinking and decision making. We should keep in mind that even successful investors do not prove right all the time. Even Warren Buffett has made an investment mistake such as Salomon Brothers Inc., Tesco, a Dexter shoe company. We should not fear from making a mistake but should learn from it and should not make the same mistake again and again.

Mr. Howard Marks has discussed that how we can think differently about making a good return on investment. And he gave the name of the concept “Second Level Thinking”.


Source: The Most Important Thing by Howards Mark

There are many incidents which I personally have experienced in my investment journey where I found real effects of this concept.

Let me explain the 2nd level thinking with an example.

  • One good company which treated as a great company by the market.

The company has a good network effect, reliable brand name and also many news making a tie-up with e-commerce enterprises. Also, got hurt due to changes in the traditional tax structure. Once in a while, the company traded at a valuation of ~140x P/E, ~58x P/BV, ~7x Market cap/Sales, ~76x EV/EBITDA etc.

The company has a good track record and a good brand name but the market has treated it as the great and current valuation of the company is ~64x P/E, ~20x P/BV, ~4x Market cap/Sales and ~44% fall in price from its high price.

This suggests that if any opportunity is much discussed at market space, then we should be more cautious regarding that opportunity and if possible need to stay away from it.

Same with the reverse scenario. Making an investment in metals, sugar sector when everyone fearing from these sectors. When sugar and metal prices were on the lower side, then that was the best time to make an investment in these sectors.



We can see that all sugar stocks have started performing after August-2015 from where also prices of sugar started increasing.

  • There are many examples where we have experienced this situation. We can able to create huge wealth when we have made an investment in the adverse scenario.

The scenario of the year 2008 subprime crisis, 2013 or 2016 demonetization situation. If we have made an investment at such panic situations, we can able to create a huge wealth.


Same with the reverse situation. When there are a high growth and happy scenario starts, we should keep cautious with our investment. We cannot able to catch the bottom and the high of the market, but we can able to stay with cautious with the surrounding scenario.

The Cocktail Party Stock Market Indicator


  • When news of falls in corporate earnings at everywhere and everyone dumps stocks, then it’s a good buying opportunity. If earnings fall less compared to expectations, then we can see a huge shock. And if everyone is expecting to fall in earnings then only we can able to get the good opportunity to enter into a particular business.



Second level thinking is different, difficult and more detailed compared to the first level of thinking. When the 1st thought comes in our mind, we always need to think deeply about it before making any decision.

First level thinking is very easy and many are following it but for getting a different result from the crowd, we need to think differently. As Mr. Howard Marks has quoted results matrix for the second level thinking.


Our unconventional behavior can help us to achieve unconventional results. Thus, for getting a superior return we need to adopt the second level thinking. And for developing a second level thinking, we need to work hard. We need a huge courage for going against the crowd and it’s not an easy task to perform.


Read for more detail: The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks


Above article is just my perception, and perception can be wrong. For me, my perception can be right but for others, it might be wrong.